How do the foreign policies of Arab states engage with increasing multipolarity in the region, particularly in managing the rise of China while balancing traditional ties with the U.S. and the West? And what strategies do regional powers use to navigate relationships with both new and established international actors?
This post is likely to raise more questions than answers, but to begin unpacking them, I conducted a broad review of academic literature to better understand how scholars are thinking about these dynamics.
I used a range of digital tools to survey academic literature and gain a clearer picture of the prevailing scholarly discourse. The most useful I found to be Elicit, an AI program designed to do meta analysis of academic works. This broad review encompassed over 400 academic papers and focused primarily on countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, and the Arab League.
The findings were interesting, but not that surprising.
Arab states are actively navigating the evolving landscape of global multipolarity by blending longstanding security relationships with the United States with growing investments and partnerships with China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. Many Middle Eastern governments are using a strategy of "hedging" to maintain flexibility and autonomy (Cengiz 2020; Huwaidin 2024; Mason 2023). These states continue military and security coordination with the U.S., while simultaneously engaging in economic diplomacy with China and entering into selective collaborations with Russia (Sim & Fulton 2020; Papageorgiou & Jamali 2024).
The literature show that China's rising economic and political footprint in the Middle East is contributing to a reshaping of regional alliances and challenging U.S. hegemony (Chaziza 2014; Murphy 2022; Farheen et al. 2024). Through instruments like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), economic statecraft, energy infrastructure development, and soft balancing strategies, Beijing is attempting to shift regional dependencies away from U.S. and realign them with Chinese interests (Garlick & Havlová 2020; Leverett 2017; Ghiselli & Giuffrida 2020). Beijing’s strategic goals focus on non-interference, securing energy flows in the Red Sea and Indian Oceans, establishing long-term trade and investment routes, and extending its influence through partnerships in nuclear energy and defense (Sun et al. 2022; Wang & Zhao 2022).
Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are adopting more assertive and diversified foreign policies (Dazi-Héni 2023; Mahdavi 2024). These include expanding diplomatic mediation efforts in Middle East and global conflicts (like Ukraine), investing in non-oil sectors to reduce economic dependency and localize supply chains (e.g. initiatives like Vision 2030), and enhancing their regional and international presence through regional institutions like the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab League, and, increasingly, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Gray 2023; Sim & Fulton 2022). Furthermore, the emergence of minilateralism—small, flexible groupings of non-traditional countries for tactical regional cooperation—signals a shift away from traditional multilateral diplomacy and a move toward groupings which give Gulf countries more autonomy and strategic agility in their foreign policies.
The United States, while still a key security actor, is perceived as recalibrating its presence in the region and shifting its footprint toward the Pacific region. This has prompted regional powers to seek alternative partnerships. Iran, for instance, has responded by aligning more directly with China and Russia in an attempt to counterbalance U.S. pressure (Malla 2022; Zhang & Xiao 2019). Meanwhile, countries like Egypt are focused primarily on leveraging Chinese investment for infrastructure and development goals (Macgillivray 2019).
Three main foreign policy response types were identified in the study: 1) maintaining U.S. alliances while diversifying partnerships (e.g., Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) (Mason 2018; Cengiz 2020), 2) directly challenging U.S. influence by aligning with rival powers (e.g., Iran) (Chaziza 2014), and 3) hedging strategies that avoid exclusive alignment and prioritize flexibility (e.g., UAE, Saudi Arabia) (Fulton 2018; Huwaidin 2024). These strategies result in different outcomes, including continued security cooperation, increased regional autonomy, and geopolitical competition.
At a regional level, Gulf states are enhancing their influence through military modernization, diplomatic initiatives, economic diversification, and participation in international forums (Mason 2018; Farheen et al. 2024). This multipronged approach has improved their regional standing and resilience. The shift from traditional bipolar alignments to multipolar engagement—especially involving China—suggests a deeper transformation in the global order, one where the Middle East is not just reacting to external powers, but actively shaping the terms of engagement through diversified partnerships and regional initiatives (Murphy 2022; Sun & Zoubir 2014).
A bibliography of the more relevant papers I reviewed - it is not exhaustive.
Ghiselli, A., & Giuffrida, M. G. E. (2020). China as an Offshore Balancer in the Middle East and North Africa.
China's Relations with the Arab and Gulf States (2020).
Zhang, C., & Xiao, C. (2019). China's New Role in the Region of the Middle East: A Policy Debate. Pacific Focus.
Murphy, D. C. (2022). How China’s Rise Is Changing the Middle East by Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Niv Horesh (Review). China Review International.
Sun, D., Xu, H., & Tu, Y. (2022). In with the New: China's Nuclear‐Energy Diplomacy in the Middle East. Middle East Policy.
Sun, D., & Zoubir, Y. (2014). China's Response to the Revolts in the Arab World: A Case of Pragmatic Diplomacy.
Leverett, F. (2017). Toward Well-Oiled Relations? China’s Presence in the Middle East Following the Arab Spring. In N. Horesh (Ed.), Palgrave Macmillan.
Dazi-Héni, F. (2023). The War in Ukraine and Arab Gulf States’ Foreign Policy Shifts. European Review of International Studies.
Macgillivray, I. (2019). Maturing Sino-Saudi Strategic Relations and Changing Dynamics in the Gulf.
Cheng, J. (2016). China’s Relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council States: Multilevel Diplomacy in a Divided Arab World.
Garlick, J., & Havlová, R. (2020). China’s “Belt and Road” Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging Amidst Saudi–Iranian Regional Rivalry.
Fulton, J. (2018). China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies.
Sim, L.-C., & Fulton, J. (2022). External Powers and the UAE. In Facets of Security in the United Arab Emirates.
Sim, L.-C., & Fulton, J. (2020). Implications of a Regional Order in Flux: Chinese and Russian Relations with the United Arab Emirates.
Papageorgiou, M., & Jamali, A. B. (2024). Standing in-Between—Gulf States in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Under New Security Dynamics: The GCC, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs.
Gray, M. (2023). The Rise of Minilateralism, the Indo-Pacific Context, and the Arab Gulf States. Journal of the Indian Ocean Region.
Huwaidin, M. B. (2024). UAE's Balancing Strategy Between the United States and China. Middle East Policy.
Malla, M. W. (2022). China's Approach to the Iran‐Saudi Arabia Rivalry. Middle East Policy.
Mahdavi, M. (2024). Red Capitalism and Neoliberal Authoritarianism. Sociology of Islam.
Chaziza, M. (2014). Soft Balancing Strategy in the Middle East.
Mason, R. (2018). Breaking the Mold of Small State Classification? The Broadening Influence of United Arab Emirates Foreign Policy Through Effective Military and Bandwagoning Strategies.
Mason, R. (2023). Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Farheen, S., Anayat, B., & Khan, M. F. (2024). China's Growing Interest in the Middle East: Implications for US Role. Research Journal for Societal Issues.
Cengiz, S. (2020). Saudi Foreign Policy Towards China in the Post-Arab Uprisings Era: A Neo-Classical Realist Approach.
Wang, Z., & Zhao, J. (2022). Internal Structural Changes in China-Arab League Relations: Characteristics, Motivations and Influences. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies.