Russia Speaks: Putin, Russian Experts address a post-Assad Syria
The fall of Assad creates new challenges for Russia, who poured significant blood and treasure in shoring up the Assad government and protecting its basing rights in Tartous. Since the fall of Assad, the question facing Putin and many of Russia’s foreign policy experts: what’s next?
Framing Russia's Uphill Battle in Syria
The fall of Bashar al-Assad has left Russia grappling with significant strategic challenges in Syria, particularly regarding the future of its military bases. Tartus and Khmeimim, pivotal to Russia’s naval and air operations in the Mediterranean and beyond, now face an uncertain future. European states, seeking to capitalize on the regime change, have reportedly offered to alleviate sanctions on the new Syrian government on the condition that it withdraw consent for Russian military basing rights and removes Russian forces altogether. This represents a direct challenge to Russia's long-term strategic ambitions in the region and extents Europe’s competition with Russia beyond Ukraine and back to the Middle East.
Despite these setbacks, President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated remarkable geopolitical flexibility. By leveraging Russia’s ties with Turkey and other regional actors, Putin has shown an ability to adapt to changing dynamics, ensuring that Russian military and economic assets remain protected, even in the absence of Assad. Turkey, with its vested interest in stabilizing Syria’s borders and facilitating refugee returns, could serve as a key partner in preserving elements of Russian influence.
However, the real litmus test for the new Syrian government will be its stance on allowing Russia to continue using the Tartus port. This warm water port has been a cornerstone of Russia’s ability to project power in the Mediterranean and bolster its operations in Ukraine. Allowing its continued use would signal a willingness to maintain a working relationship with Moscow, while denying access would severely undermine Russia’s strategic position in the region.
The United States, already exploring avenues to engage the new Syrian government, is likely to prioritize undermining Russia’s foothold in Syria. This effort would include diplomatic overtures and potential incentives to shift Syrian loyalties away from Moscow. Yet, this objective is far from universal among key regional players. Turkey and the Arab states, while eager to stabilize Syria and reduce Iranian influence, may not share the U.S. ambition to completely oust Russia. Moscow still maintains political ties with many in the region. Instead, their focus remains on regional stability and securing their interests, leaving room for nuanced approaches to Russian presence in Syria.
Ultimately, Russia’s uphill battle in Syria will hinge on its ability to balance regional partnerships, navigate the competing objectives of external actors, and convince the new Syrian leadership of the value of continued collaboration. This is a test not only of Russia’s resilience but also of its capacity to adapt its foreign policy to an increasingly multipolar and competitive environment.
Putin Speaks
On December 19, 2024, during his annual press conference, President Vladimir Putin addressed Russia’s evolving role in Syria. He announced plans to use Russian military bases in Syria—the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim airbase—to deliver humanitarian aid to the Syrian people. However, he noted that the future of these bases remains uncertain, contingent on alignment with Syria’s new leadership following Assad’s ousting.
"The overwhelming [number] of them [Middle Eastern countries] tell us that they would be interested in our military bases remaining in Syria. I don’t know, we have to think about it," Putin flagged.
Putin also provided rare insights into recent events, including the fall of Aleppo on November 30. Syrian opposition forces took the city without resistance from the vastly outnumbered government troops. He noted that such scenarios played out across Syria, leading to the swift collapse of Assad’s regime.
According to Putin: [paraphrased] "The armed opposition took the city without a fight with 350 militants, although it was defended by a group of government troops and pro-Iranian militias numbering 30,000 people. They blew up their positions and left. The same thing happened throughout Syria, with rare exceptions"
Addressing regional dynamics, Putin condemned Israel’s deep incursions into Syrian territory, including the seizure of fortified positions in the Golan Heights. He described Israel as the main beneficiary of Syria’s civil war, while emphasizing Russia’s stabilizing presence in preventing Syria from becoming a hub for extremist forces.
Amid these challenges, Putin reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to multilateral diplomacy and strategic partnerships, particularly as the region’s political landscape continues to shift.
"It will be possible to assess the prospects for maintaining Russia’s military presence in Syria after March 1, when new elections are held there, or even by mid-2025," said Vladimir Sazhin, a senior research fellow, reflecting on the broader uncertainty surrounding Syria’s future and its implications for Russia’s regional strategy.
Russia’s Views on the Syrian Crisis: Reflections from a Roundtable Discussion [translated from Russian]
On December 12, 2024, a significant roundtable discussion titled "The Syrian Crisis: Reasons for the Escalation of the Situation and Possible Consequences" was held at the MIA "Russia Today" press center. The forum brought together leading Russian experts to analyze the rapid regime change in Syria and its broader implications for the Middle East and Russia. The panelists—Andrey Kortunov, Nikolai Sukhov, Vladimir Sazhin, Grigory Lukyanov, and Amur Gadzhiev—offered a spectrum of insights into the causes and consequences of Syria’s transformation.
The Persisting Syrian Problem: A Historical Context
Andrey Kortunov, Scientific Director of the Russian International Affairs Council, contextualized the crisis within Syria’s longstanding challenges. The problems in Syria were long-term and persistent. However, the events of December 7, 2024 came as a surprise to both regional and external players.
In the current situation, the participants in regional processes have common tasks: to prevent the collapse of Syria, avoid a humanitarian catastrophe and multi-million migration flows to other countries, prevent the resumption of the development of chemical weapons and the spread of weapons to neighboring countries, and help Syria once again become part of the Arab world.
The Syrian problem is international in nature, since behind every influential group in this country there are external forces.
The policies of Syria's closest neighbors in relation to the current situation will be determined by considerations of situational opportunism, since none of the neighbors has sufficient resources to take responsibility for the future of Syrian statehood in the long term.
The most favorable scenario for Syria is development following the example of Afghanistan, that is, the establishment of centralized power in Damascus and its gradual legitimization in the global and regional dimensions.
Relations between Moscow and Damascus have never been limited to interpersonal relations between the leaders. Russia remains one of Syria's key economic partners, the parties have strong humanitarian ties, and the presence of a Russian military contingent in the region remains.
Moscow prefers a multilateral settlement format.
China's approach to the Syrian issue is similar to its policy towards Afghanistan: Beijing is in no hurry to recognize the new government, but refrains from actions that could be considered hostile. China traditionally calls for a peaceful settlement through political means and is determined to participate in the post-conflict reconstruction of Syria, which remains part of the "One Belt, One Road" project.
Challenges for Syria’s Transitional Government
Nikolai Sukhov, a leading researcher at IMEMO RAS, focused on the immediate tasks for Syria’s new transitional government.
The main task of the group that came to power in the country is to create an alternative to the previously existing state system. The recently formed transitional government should be focused on ensuring the functioning of the main state bodies and satisfying the basic needs of the population, which is in a state of shock.
The most optimistic scenario would be one in which the government would begin to restore the country, primarily in the spheres of production and trade. In the most negative scenario, radical groups with a terrorist past could prevail in Syria's ruling circles, and the government that comes to power would not be able to control them.
A possible recovery is significantly complicated by the actions of Israel, which has dealt a crushing blow to Syria's military power and technical potential.
The player most interested in the Syrian settlement is Turkey, but one should not rely too much on its help, since the Turkish economy itself is in a rather vulnerable position. Russia can also participate in the restoration of the country, since it retains enormous human potential in Syria.
Iran’s Strategic Setback
Vladimir Sazhin highlighted the significant impact of Israel’s October 2023 military operations, which contributed to the rapid downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s government.
The events of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent Israeli ground operations were one of the reasons for such a rapid change of power in Syria. As a result of Israel's actions, Iran and Hezbollah were significantly weakened and unable to support the government of Bashar al-Assad.
Iran is one of the main losers in the current situation, not only in terms of losing one of its main allies in the region, but also on a philosophical and ideological level. The change of power in Damascus undermined Iran's position in the region, as it deprived it of the opportunity to provide the necessary support to Hezbollah and called into question the existence of the "Axis of Resistance".
Syria played a major role in Iran's fight against the “Zionist” regime and the presence of American troops in the Middle East. Iran created a system of military bases, warehouses, transit points and enterprises on Syrian territory, and also significantly participated in the economic and social life of Syria to increase its influence and spread the ideas of the Islamic Revolution in the region.
Iran's position in relation to the events that have taken place is hopeless, especially in the context of social and economic problems within the country. The Islamic Republic is in its most vulnerable position in its 45 years of existence.
Opportunities for Stabilization
Grigory Lukyanov argued that meaningful resolution of Middle Eastern conflicts requires the involvement of regional actors, including influential non-state armed groups.
The resolution of conflicts in the Middle East is possible only with the participation of regional actors, including non-state armed groups, which have a significant influence on the situation and create significant security threats.
Israel has taken the lead in destroying Syria's military capabilities without much resistance, but large quantities of weapons remain in the country, posing a security threat to the entire region.
All regional players are interested in stabilizing and resolving the situation in Syria, which opens up opportunities for strengthening and legitimizing the power of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* at the regional level. In the event of even partial implementation of reforms, which the previous government was incapable of, the movement may gain weight as a possible national government.
Arab countries will be ready to recognize as legitimate any political force capable of controlling the state's borders and creating conditions for the return of refugees who put pressure on the economies of regional players. The goal of the Persian Gulf countries is to reduce the frequency of using military means in resolving interstate issues.
One of the most serious problems in the current situation is the lack of platforms for negotiations and cooperation in the region. The Astana format has exhausted itself, but its legacy can be transformed with the participation of all regional states in the settlement process.
Turkey’s Dual Role
Amur Gadzhiev explored Turkey’s complex position in the Syrian crisis. Initially a supporter of HTS, Turkey’s relationship with the group has evolved as it gained independence and advanced toward Damascus.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* initially developed with Turkish support, but as they advanced towards Damascus, their relationship with Ankara became more complicated and the movement now operates more independently.
Turkey's position on the Syrian issue is to preserve the integrity of Syria, provided that a new constitution is adopted that takes into account its ethnic and religious composition. Ankara is interested in ensuring the security of its southern borders and the return of Syrian refugees in Turkey, and is therefore ready to contribute to stabilizing the situation and restoring the socio-economic situation in the country.
The change of power in Syria creates both opportunities and risks for Turkey. Among the opportunities is the potential increase in Turkey's role on the international stage, while the risks include increased autonomy for the Kurds and the threat of Israeli expansion in Syria.